R/S方法和Hurst指数试验在重庆市户籍人口自然变动分析中的应用

Application of R / S method and Hurst index experiment in natural change analysis of Chongqing registered population

根据重庆市1985—2013年的户籍人口自然变动指标统计数据,选择户籍人口出生率、死亡率、自然增长率等指标参数,运用R/S分析法研究重庆市未来户籍人口自然变动指标的变化趋势;并通过Hurst指数试验预测重庆市未来户籍人口自然增长率的变化情况;参考气候倾向率的概念,计算重庆市户籍人口自然变动倾向率。研究表明:重庆市未来户籍人口变动指标的变化趋势与过去29年的变化有很好的自相似性。未来10年,户籍人口出生率将降低1.102‰;户籍人口死亡率将增加0.066‰左右;户籍人口自然增长率将降低1.168‰左右。根据户籍人口增长率的20年Hurst指数试验结果表明,重庆市户籍人口自然增长率降低趋势的持续性很强,期间没有转折,没有升高降低的突变点。通过对未来户籍人口增长趋势的预测,为人口调控政策提供决策依据。

According to natural index statistics of Chongqing registered population from 1985 to 2013,this paper chooses parameters as registered population birth rate( ‰),registered population mortality rate( ‰),and registered population natural growth rate( ‰) to predict the trend of natural change of Chongqing registered population in future,by using R / S method. And it forecasts the change of registered population natural growth rate by Hurst index experiment,and calculates the change tendency of natural change of Chongqing registered population referring to the concept of climate trend rate. The results show that,there is a self-similarity between the future natural change of registered population tendency with that of past 29 years in Chongqing. Registered population birth rate( ‰) will reduce 1. 102,registered population mortality rate( ‰) will rise 0. 066,and registered population natural growth rate( ‰) will reduce 1. 168 in the next ten years. According to the Hurst index experiment results,the persistence in tensity of Chongqing registered population natural growth rate( ‰) is strong,and there is no transition or discontinuity. The forecasts of registered population growth trend in future can provide bases of population controlling policy.