人口结构、城镇化与住房需求

根据中国1999—2013年省级面板数据,运用混合效应、固定效应和随机效应模型考察了人口结构、城镇化对居民住房需求的影响。研究发现,人口结构中少儿抚养比对住房需求有负向的显著影响,老年抚养比对住房需求有正向的显著影响;城镇化对住房需求有显著的正向影响。通过2010年中国人口普查资料的截面数据进一步论证,得到与前面一致的结论。此外,本文还发现人均收入、住房价格、当年新开工住房面积对住房需求有正向的显著影响,平均家庭户规模、流动人口比重对住房需求有负向的显著影响。要促进住房市场的健康发展,确保社会和谐,国家和政府需要做好三大方面的政策调控工作。

This paper analyses the impacts of population structure and urbanization on the housing demand of residents by using mixed effect, fixed effect and random effect model, according to the panel data from Chinese provinces from the period 1999 to 2013. The results show that the child dependence ratio has a significantly negative impact on housing demand, while the old dependency ratio and the proportions of urban residents have significantly positive impacts on housing demand. The results of further research through 2010 Chinese census data confirm the front research. In addition, this article also finds out that, per capita income, the housing price and the new construction residential area have significantly positive impacts on housing demand, while the average household size and the proportion of floating population have significantly negative impacts on housing demand. The state and governments need to complete four aspects of policy regulations in order to promote the good interaction between the housing market and the development of population as to ensure the social harmony.