银行信贷、房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系研究——基于省际面板平滑转换模型的实证检验

Nonlinear Relationship Among Bank Credit,Housing Price,Economic Growth:A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach

选用中国2000~2014年31个省的面板数据,以银行信贷为转换变量,通过构建面板平滑转换模型对我国房地产价格与经济增长的非线性关系进行考察。研究发现：当信贷增长率低于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长产生比较显著的正向影响;当信贷增长率高于28.74%时,房价增长率对经济增长起到了明显的阻碍作用。因此,为了实现＂稳定房价和保持经济平稳增长＂的目标,央行应将信贷增速维持在低增长体制的最优区间中。同时,央行还应该改善信贷结构,鼓励和引导金融资源进行合理配置。

Based on China＇s 31province-level panel data from 2000 to 2013,setting bank credit as the transition variable and applying the Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model,this paper investigates the nonlinear relationship between house price and economic growth in China.The results indicate that the effects of house price on economic growth change over the level of bank credit rate.Housing price is positively correlated with economic growth when bank credit rate below the threshold 28.72%;while bank credit rate is above the threshold,housing price is negatively correlated with economic growth.Thus,in order to realize the target of stabilizing housing price and maintaining stable economic growth,the policy authorities will not only have to keep the increasing speed of bank credit to low growth stage,but also optimizing the credit structure and allocation of financial resources rationally.