我国企业债务的结构性问题

The Structural Problem of China's Non-financial Corporate Debt

我国经济应该去杠杆还是加杠杆?基于1998—2013年间近400万个我国规模以上工业企业负债率的分析,本文提供三方面的证据以初步回答这一问题。首先,我们发现:在这16年内,样本企业呈现出了显著的、整体性的去杠杆趋势,平均负债率从1998年的65%持续下降到2013年的51%;与此同时,显著加杠杆的是数千家大型、国有、上市的企业。第二,样本企业的一些重要特征发生了显著变化,包括经营性风险上升、有形资产比例下降以及盈利能力提高,这些变化都和负债率的整体下降是一致的。我们进一步发现,私营企业的企业特征与其负债率之间的关系与西方企业高度一致;然而企业层面的因素却不能解释国有企业的负债率。第三,一方面,资金配置对于国有企业的偏向性越来越强;另一方面,负利润的"僵尸"企业更容易得到贷款的现象在2008年之前可能就存在了,而2008年之后更加显著。

How should China deleverage it non-financial corporate sector？ By analyzing four million Chinese manufacturing company samples during the period of 1998--2013, this papers present evidence from three aspects. First, which company has borrowed the most？ We find that within the sixteen year period, most sample firms have already been significantly deleveraged, with the average leverage ratio declining from 65% in 1998 to 51% in 2013. In contrast, only several thousands of companies have significantly leveraged, mostly large scale, state-owned, listed firms. Second, has the change of leverage supportec by the firms＇ fundamentals？ We find that within the sample period, significant changes have been happened on major firm characteristics, including improved profitability, rising business risk, and declining share of tangible asset. These changes are aligned with the aggregate deleverage trend. We further find that for private firms, the relationship between their firm characteristics and their leverage ratios are highly consistent with the evidence of Western companies. In contrast, firm level factors are not significant in the leverage function of state owned enterprises. Third, we have preliminarily explored the effects of supply-side on firm leverage. Our results indicate that, Chinese banks allocate capitals with increasing biases toward SOEs. Moreover, the issue of zombie lending occurs prior to 2008 and are aggravated post to 2008.