首都教育资源配置与人口发展态势的互动

Interaction Research between Educational Resources Allocation and Population Development Trend in Beijing

基于2001-2015年的《北京市教育事业统计资料》,利用常规统计分析方法,发现北京市教育资源配置和人口发展态势表现为以下关联特点:中等教育阶段在校生规模相对较少;义务教育阶段非京籍学生占比骤增;学校数量"高校和高中增加、其他皆降";小学和大学阶段的师生比下降,资源配置略显紧张;基础教育阶段的就学人口主要聚集于城市功能拓展区,其占比仍在提升;高等教育的核心培养对象所占比例已降至不足四成。为了促进教育和人口的良性互动,政府部门未来应关注六个问题:人口发展惯性引发的教育需求增长拐点问题、流动人口子女不同流向引发的人力资本提升受阻问题、人口空间布局优化引发的教育资源有效配置问题、人口疏解视野下高等教育的"瘦身"问题以及职业人才匮乏引发的创新支撑不足问题。

Based on Beijing Education Statistics from 2001 to 2015,using conventional statistical analysis method,this paper finds interaction between Beijing educational resources and population development trend for the following characteristics： The scale of students in secondary education is relatively small; The compulsory students of non-Beijing accounted for a surge in membership; The number of college and high school are increasing,others fall; The teacher-student ratio in primary school and college is decreased,because the Resource Allocation is slightly nervous; The population in basic education school gathered in the main city functional expansion area,which still accounted for upgrade; The proportion of core training targets in higher education has fallen to less than 40 percent. In order to promote positive interaction between education and population,government should be concerned about the six issues in the future： the inflection point of growth of demand for education caused by the population developing; the problem of human capital promotion blocked by the different flow of floating children caused; the effective allocation of educational resources caused by population spatial distribution optimization; the downsizing the scale of the higher education in population ease perspective and the lack of professional personnel shortage caused by innovation support and other issues.