中国普遍二孩生育的政策环境与政策目标

The Environment and the Purpose of Two-child Policy in China

普遍二孩生育政策的实施效果,不仅涉及人口长期均衡发展目标的实现,也决定着生育政策下一步改革的方向和速度。文章围绕"谁来生"(生育主体)、"如何养"(社会经济条件)、"生多少"(生育文化)三个问题,着重分析了中国普遍二孩生育的人口环境、社会经济环境和政治文化环境。结果显示普遍二孩生育政策并不会起到立竿见影提升生育率水平的效果,其对劳动力短缺、人口老龄化等结构性问题的解决也不会是即时的。文章对这一政策的可能效果与实现政策目标的关系进行了理论上的探讨,认为政府工作的重点须顺应政策环境的变化,努力创造生育友好型社会,而不是急于求成再次贸然改变生育政策。

The two-child policy implemented since 2016 is a significant reform in China,the result decides not only the realization of population balanced development in the long term,but also the direction and speed of the next-step reform of China＇s birth policy. Centering on three questions（ i. e.,who gives births,how to raise child and how many children will be born）,this paper makes an analysis of the policy environment focusing on the factors of population,socioeconomic conditions and political culture. The results imply that the two-child policy is unlikely to raise fertility level immediately, neither to solve population structure problems in short run. After discussing theoretically the relationship between effects and purpose of the policy,the paper suggests Chinese government should comply with the change in policy environment and guarantee current policy＇s implementation by creating a childbearing-friendly society instead of changing birth policy prematurely.