交互式两阶段分位值水资源系统规划模型

ITFO:An Interactive Two-Stage Fractile Water Resources Management Model

开发了一种交互式两阶段分位值优化(ITFO)模型,并将其应用于不确定条件下水资源系统规划问题。该模型将分位值优化方法引入随机规划模型中,用于处理目标函数和约束两侧的双重不确定性,同时体现决策者对水资源系统收益的偏好。结果表明:1ITFO模型可以有效解决水资源系统规划问题,得到不同可信度和分位值下系统收益和水资源分配量;2可信度θ与系统收益上界呈现反比关系,与系统收益下界呈现正比关系,即随着可信度θ的增大,系统收益值减小,同时系统收益区间变小,不确定性降低。3分位值pne与系统收益呈现反比关系。ITFO模型可以为决策者提供可行的水资源系统方案,使水资源系统分析更加符合客观实际。

In this study, a method of interactive two-stage fractile optimization （ITFO） model is proposed and applied to a water re- sources system planning problem. The fractile optimization method is combined into the stochastic programming model to deal with dual uncertainties in the objective function and constraints, and to reflect the preference for the system benefit. The results show that ①ITFO can effectively solve water resources system planning problem and help generate optimal solutions under various feasibilities and fractile values. ② The feasibility θ has an inverse relationship with the upper bound of system benefit, but is proportional to the lower bound of system benefit, i.e. the interval value of system benefit decreases as feasibility increases, leading to uncertainty decrease. ③The fractile value pne has an inverse relationship with the system benefit. ITSPF can provide feasible schemes for decision-makers and make the water resources system more reasonable and practical.