陕西省粮食生产的时空演变及绩效评价

The Spatial-temporal evolution and performance evaluation of grain production in Shaanxi Province

本研究介绍了陕西省粮食生产的总体情况,综合运用重心模型和DEA模型对粮食生产的时空演变及发展绩效进行了客观评价。重心模型结果表明,1995—2014年陕西省粮食产量重心移动的总体方向为北偏东10.18°,重心移动距离37.415 3 km,2003年以后重心位置相对稳定。数据包络分析结果表明,2014年铜川、汉中和安康3个地级市为DEA评价无效,其他地级市均为DEA评价有效、技术有效和规模有效。总体来说,陕西省粮食生产基本处于供需平衡状态,低下的粮食单产水平已经成为制约粮食生产的重要因素,未来陕西省粮食产量可能会呈现小幅增长的变化趋势。

This article describes the overall situation of grain production in Shaanxi Province, using the gravity model and the DEA model to objectively evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution and the devel- opment performance of grain production. The gravity model results show that during the period of 1995--2014, the overall direction of Shaanxi province grain production center of gravity moved by 10. 18% north by east, and the center of gravity moving distance was 37. 415 3 km. Since 2003, the center of gravity position is relatively stable. Data envelopment analysis results show that DEA evaluation for Tongchuan, Hanzhong and Ankang was invalid, but effective, in technology and scale, for others in 2014. In general, grain production in Shaanxi Province is in a state of balance between supply and de- mand, the low level of grain yield has become an important factor restricting food production, and the future of grain production in Shaanxi province may show a slight increase trend.