摘要
利用天峻县1961～2015年逐日降水量资料，采用线性趋势分析及Mann—Kendel等方法，分析了天峻地区汛期降水量、降水日数及降水强度的变化特征。结果表明，近55a天峻地区随着降水量级的增加，降水日数和降水量呈减小趋势，而降水强度表现为增强趋势；汛期总降水日数、总降水量和平均降水强度均呈波动增加趋势，总降水量和平均降水强度增加趋势明显，总降水日数变化趋势不明显；小雨、中雨和大到暴雨的降水日数变化趋势不明显，小雨降水量呈显著的增加趋势，中雨和大到暴雨的降水量变化趋势不明显：小雨和中雨降水强度均表现为显著的增加趋势。天峻地区未来不同等级降水量、降水日数和降水强度变化情况与过去55a的变化趋势相同，短时期内不会发生逆转。
Useing of in county daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2015 Tianjun, by adopting the method of linear trend analysis and Mann - Kendel, analyzed the day flood season precipitation and precipitation days and the change characteristics of precipitation intensity.Results show that nearly 55 years of Tianjun region with the increase of precipitation grades, rainy days and precipitation showed a trend of decrease, and the intensity of precipitation to increase trend;total precipitation days, total precipitation in flood season and average rainfall intensity all showed a trend of increased volatility, total precipitation and average rainfall intensity increased ob- viously, and the total precipitation days change trend is not obvious;light rain, moderate rain, and big to rain- storm precipitation days change trend is not obvious, light rain precipitation was significantly increased, moder- ate rain and big rainstorm precipitation change trend is not obvious;Light rain and moderate rain precipitation intensity were characterized by significant increase trend. Day topped the future level of different precipitation, rainfall days and precipitation intensity changes with the change trend of the past 55 years, same in the short term will not reverse.
出处
《青海草业》
2016年第2期45-49,共5页
Qinghai Prataculture
关键词
等级降水
气候倾向率
突变
天峻地区
Level precipitation
Climate tendency rate
Mutation
Tianjun region
