中国人口流动的区域特征及对城镇化的影响

On Regional Characteristics of Population Flow in China and its Influence on the Urbanization

从人口流动差异角度探究其对中国区域城镇化发展的影响,并利用全国31个省区面板数据进行实证检验,研究结果表明:人口流动对东部和民族地区城镇化发展具有促进作用,对中西部地区起阻碍作用。在经济结构调整的背景下,东部地区人口流入规模减小,人口流动对城镇化的影响由促进作用变为阻碍作用;中西部地区人口流出持续扩大,但人口流动对城镇化发展的负面影响减弱;民族地区人口流入规模增大,人口流动对城镇化影响由阻碍作用变为促进作用。文章的政策含义是:区域城镇化均衡发展是中国城镇化持续发展的动力,东部地区依靠人口流入推动其城镇化发展的作用减弱,城镇化建设应更多注重本地区农村居民市民化和城镇化的质量上;加快中西部地区经济发展,增强经济实力,减小人口流出规模有利于提升中西部地区城镇化发展的持续性;深入推进西部大开发和民族地区开放对于提升民族地区城镇化水平具有重要的作用。

In this paper, we explore the impact of population differences on regional urbanization development, and use the panel data of 31 provinces in China. The results show that population flow has a promoting effect on the development of urbanization in the eastern part of the country. Under the background of economic structure adjustment, the change of population flow has a significant impact on the development of urbanization. Among them, the population of the eastern region has reduced the urbanization development; the economic development of the central and western regions has weakened the negative effect of the net outflow of population on the urbanization. The policy implication of this paper is： the balanced development of regional urbanization is the power of China＇s urbanization sustainable development, and the eastern region which relies on population inflow promotes the development of urbanization path unsustainably, and more attention in urbanization should be paid on the quality of rural residents into citizenship in the regional urbanization; to accelerate the economic development of the central and western regions, reducing the population of unidirectional flow is conducive to enhancing the sustainability of urbanization development in the western region, and improving the level of urbanization in ethnic minority regions, in which the western development policy has played an important role.