经济不确定性与我国宏观经济波动——基于实际经济周期模型的分析

Economic Uncertainty and Chinese Economic Periodic Fluctuation:An Empirical Analysis Based on RBC Model

经济不确定性是我国宏观经济波动的重要原因,本文通过构建一个考虑消费习惯形成的实际经济周期理论模型,探讨了经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给对我国宏观经济波动影响的内在机理及影响程度。研究结果表明:一方面,经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给冲击可以解释中国经济波动的大部分,其中,经济不确定性冲击的贡献最大;另一方面,经济不确定性、技术进步和劳动供给冲击均具有长期性,其中,经济不确定性对宏观经济变量以负向冲击为主,而技术进步和劳动供给的冲击与此相反。此外,消费习惯形成仅在短期内可以弱化外生变量的冲击,从长期来看,消费习惯形成对宏观经济波动没有影响。

Economic uncertainty is an important reason of economic periodic fluctuation in China.The paper sets up a real business cycle model with habit formation which used data simulation method to study the inherent logic and dynamic impact of economic uncertainty,technical progress and labor supply influence on macro-economy in China.Empirical findings show that:Firstly,the RBC model can explain the Chinese economic periodic fluctuation well;the shock of economic uncertainty for macro-economy is most contribution to fluctuation.Secondly,economic uncertainty,technical progress and labor supply have a long-term influence.Economic uncertainty has negative shock for output,consumption,investment and capital stock in the long term;the impact of technical progress and labor supply is the same with existent research,and has inversely influence on macro-economy.Consume habit formation can weaken shock of exogenous variable in short-term,Consume habit formation has not a long-term influence.