北京市东城区2001—2011年甲状腺癌发病趋势分析

Incidence trend of thyroid cancer in Beijing Dongcheng District,2001-2011

目的 ：分析北京市东城区2001—2011年甲状腺癌发病的变化趋势。方法 ：利用2001—2011年北京市东城区居民甲状腺癌的发病资料,按性别和年龄计算甲状腺癌的发病率,采用世界标准人口计算标化率,采用对数直线回归法估算发病率的年度变化百分比（annual percent change,APC）。结果 ：2001—2011年,北京市东城区居民甲状腺癌累计发病563例,其中男性125例,女性438例,男女性别比为1∶3.50。甲状腺癌发病率由2001年的2.69/10万上升至2011年的14.29/10万,增长431.23%;标化率从1.69/10万上升至9.33/10万,增长452.07%。甲状腺癌发病率随着年龄的增长而上升,25-64岁各年龄组甲状腺癌发病率呈现显著上升的趋势,男性发病高峰出现在70-74岁组,女性发病高峰出现在45-49岁组和75-79岁组。男、女性甲状腺癌发病率的APC分别为16.88%和15.60%。结论 ：北京市东城区2001—2011年甲状腺癌发病率上升较快,需要深入分析甲状腺癌高发的原因,并针对性地采取预防措施。

Objective：To describe the incidence trends of thyroid cancer in Beijing Dongcheng District from 2001 to 2011.Methods：The data of thyroid cancer incidence in Being Dongcheng District from 2001 to 2011 was collected.The incidence rate was calculated by gender and age,and age-standardized rate（ASR）was estimated by world population.The annual percentage change（APC） of incidence was estimated by linear regression based on the logarithm of the incidence rates observed.Results：Total of 563 cases were diagnosed of thyroid cancer in2001-2011 with the gender ratio of 1：3.50（125 males vs 438females）.Incidence rate of thyroid cancer increased dramatically from2.69/100 000 in 2001 to 14.29/100 000 in 2011 with an increase percentage of 431.23%.ASR increased from 1.69/1 00 000 in 2001 to 9.33/1 00 000 in 2011 with an increase percentage of 452.07%.The age-specific rate increased with age rising.A rising trend of thyroid cancer could be seen in groups aged 25-64 years.The peak incidence was seen in males aged 70-74 years and females aged 45-49 and 75-79 years.APC of incidence rate of males and females were 1 6.88%and 1 5.60%,respecrively.Conclusion：The incidence of thyroid cancer increases rapidly from 2001 to 2011 in Beijing Dongcheng District,so the risk factors and related measurements should be taken into consideration in further study.