生物质发电中农户秸秆供应成本敏感性分析

Sensitivity Analysis on Supply Cost of Farmer Straw for Power Generation

针对生物质发电中秸秆收集困难的问题,对秸秆供应构建4种模式:人工收集主动运送模式、机械收集主动运送模式、人工收集等待收购模式和机械收集等待收购模式,建立农户秸秆供应成本模型,计算不同模式的成本,并对不同的重要因素进行单因素敏感性分析.结果表明:人工收集模式比机械收集模式成本低,但受人力工资影响大,当人力工资≥18元/h时,人工收集主动运送模式成本最高;当土地面积>0.667hm2时所有模式的成本稳定,变化不大;运输距离对人工收集模式成本的影响大于机械收集模式,留茬高度越低影响越大;作物产量水平越高,越适合机械收集模式.

In the collection process of farmer straw for power generation, there are in total following four supply modes： manpower collection ＋ active delivery, machinery collection ＋ active delivery, manpower collection ＋ waiting for delivery, and machinery collection ＋ waiting for delivery. Corresponding models were established for cost calculation of farmer straw in above supply modes, while single factor analysis was conducted for different key sensitive factors. Results show that the mode of manpower collection has lower cost than machinery collection, which however is greatly affected by the labor price, and when the labor price is more than 18 CNY/h, the mode of manpower collection ＋ active delivery costs the maximum. When the arable area is larger than 0. 667 hm2, the cost of all supply modes would basically keep constant. The mode of manpower collection is more affected by conveying distance than machinery collection, the shorter the stubble is, the higher the influence will be. Machinery collection is found to be the most suitable mode for the condition of high crop yields.