普雷维什-辛格新假说与新李斯特主义的政策建议

New Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis and the Policy Recommendations from Neo-Listism

所谓普雷维什—辛格新假说,是指自20世纪80年代以来,发展中国家工业制成品和服务产品的贸易条件相对于发达国家呈现出长期恶化的趋势。发展中国家工业制成品和服务产品的贸易条件之所以呈现出长期恶化的趋势,是其参与"新国际分工"的方式,即从价值链低端融入"全球公司"掌控的全球价值链并受其支配的结果。按照普雷维什—辛格假说(发展中国家初级产品贸易条件呈现出长期恶化趋势),"经济发展的出路在于工业化"成为发展中国家具有普遍性的经济发展战略。但在"新国际分工"的历史条件下,这一战略已不再成立。作为发展中大国的中国,只有建立本国独立自主的高端价值链,才能从根本上扭转工业制成品和服务产品贸易条件恶化的趋势,并最终实现强国富民的战略目标。

The viewpoint that the terms of trade on industrial goods and service products in developing countries relative to those in developed countries are showing a long-term deteriorating trend is referred to as ＂new Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis＂ in this paper. The main causes of the above-mentioned situation and its important significance to the strategies for economic development in developing countries can be attributed to the way the developing countries participate in the ＂new international division of labor＂, integrating into the global value chain controlled by ＂global corporation＂ from the low-end of value chain and became subject to it. According to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis, ＂the way out of economic development is industrialization＂ has become a universal economic development strategy among developing countries. But under the historical condition of ＂new international division of labor＂, such strategy has no longer been fully established. As a large developing country, only by establishing an independent high-end value chain at home, can China radically reverse the trend that the terms of trade on industrial goods and service products is deteriorating, so as to achieve the strategic goal of enforcing the country and enriching the people.