文水县近43a来气候变化特征分析

Analysis on Climatic Change Characteristics of Wenshui County in Recent 43 Years

运用文水县气象站1972—2014年的气温、降水量数据,通过计算气候倾向率和均方差,以及采用Cubic曲线拟合等方法对文水县近43 a来的气温和降水变化特征进行分析。结果表明,从温度总体变化来看,文水县近43 a来年均温以0.32℃/10 a的速度上升,尤其是20世纪90年代后增温剧烈;从季节变化来看,全年各月气温都在上升,但冬春季升温幅度剧烈,夏秋季升温幅度较弱。从降水变化来看,整体上43 a来年降水量呈现明显下降趋势,尤其从20世纪90年代开始降水量急剧下降;从季节降水来看,秋季降水量略有增加,其他3个季节降水量都呈现减少趋势。综合气温和降水变化情况,文水县气候经历了由暖湿到暖干的变化过程。

According to the data of temperature and precipitation in 1972- 2014 from Wenshui Weather Station, this paper gives the analysis of the characteristics of temperature and precipitation change in the recent 43 years by measuring climatic tendency rate and mean square deviation and adopting other methods like cubic curve fitting. The results shows that from the general temperature change,the annual temperature of Wenshui county in the recent 43 years goes up at a rate of 0.32 ℃/10 a, especially fiercely in the late 1990 s.Form the seasonal change, the monthly temperatures are all rising throughout the year, but sharply in spring and winter and weakly in summer and autumn. As for the precipitation change, the annual precipitation in the past 43 years generally declined obviously, especially sharply from the 1990 s. From the seasonal change, precipitation has a slight increase while a decrease in other three seasons. Considering the conditions of both temperature and precipitation, it has been a process form being warm and wet to being warm and dry in Wenshui County.