美国国际投资头寸影响因素及研究意义

Analysis of Evolution and Influencing Factor of US IIP and its Enlightenment to China

文章基于美国1976-2014年度数据,使用误差修正模型对美国国际投资债权头寸、债务头寸和净头寸的影响因素进行了分析,研究结果发现:美国经济规模、对外贸易开放度和资本市场融资规模能够对美国国际投资净头寸产生正向显著影响,美元指数和美国联邦基金利率能够对美国国际投资净头寸产生负向显著影响。近年来,我国国际投资发展迅速,但在国际投资过程中出现诸多问题,人民币国际化进程也较慢,文章通过研究美国国际投资,借鉴其有利的发展模式,启发并建议中国转型经济发展方式,提高人民币在国际货币体系中的地位,优化对外投资结构,提高外资质量并扩大资本市场规模,逐步提高我国国际投资质量,加快人民币国际化进程。

Based on the U.S. annual data during 1976-2014, this paper analyses the influencing factors of U.S. international inve- stment position, debt position and net position by the error correction model. It is found that the US economic scale, foreign trade ope- nness and capital market financing scale contain significant positive effects on NIIP, US dollar index, and federal funds rate contains a significant negative effect on NIIP. Subjected to impacts, NIIP will return to the long-term equilibrium state with a speed of 0.393 units. In recent years, China＇s international invest developed quickly, hut lots of problems appeared in this process. The process of internationalization of the RMB is slow. According to the conclusion of this paper, we consider that China＇s international investment quality and the RMB internationalization process can be improved by changing of the growth model, improving the position of RMB in the international monetary system, optimizing the structure of outward foreign investment and improving the quality of foreign capital.