汽车消费市场对汽车产业布局影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Automobile Market on Automobile Industry Distribution

中国已经成为世界上最大的汽车消费国,同时也是最大的汽车生产国。由于地区间经济基础、环境限制、地方政策等方面的不同,汽车市场需求增长存在显著的区域差异,一些大中型城市的汽车需求增长速度开始减缓,而二、三级城市的汽车需求增长迅速。汽车市场需求的空间分布特征及变化趋势影响汽车产业份额在区域间的重新分配。文章基于1997-2012年的中国省际面板数据,实证检验汽车消费市场对汽车产业布局的影响。研究发现:本地和邻居地区的民用汽车拥有量对汽车产量有促进作用,本地的民用汽车拥有量每增加一个百分点,则汽车产量将增加1.52个百分点;所有邻居地区的平均民用汽车拥有量每增加一个百分点,汽车产量将增加0.55个百分点;除了汽车消费市场以外,人口数量、城市化水平、平均工资水平、财政收入和开放程度等对汽车产量也有显著作用。

China has become the world＇s first largest automobile market and also the largest automobile industry producer. There are significant regional differences in the growth of automobile demand because of the unbalanced economic development level, enviro- nment constraint, and local policies among regions. Automobile demand growth has slowed down in some large and medium-sized cities, while in sub-cities, automobile demand is growing rapidly. The spatial distribution characteristics and trends of the automobile demand may affect the redistribution of the automobile industry. By using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1997 to 2012, the paper tests the effect of automobile market on automobile industry distribution. The empirical results show that the amount of civilian automobile has positive effects on automobile output obviously. 1% increased in the amount of civilian automobile in local market will make the automobile output increase 1.52%, and 1% increased in the amount of civilian automobile in neighborhood market will make the automobile output increase 0.55%. Otherwise, the population scale, the urbanization level, the average wage, the financial revenue and the economic openness also contain influences on the automobile output.