城市水环境整治项目绩效评价研究——基于D-S证据理论

Research on Performance Evaluation of Environmental Renovation Project for Urban Water——Based on D-S Evidential Theory

为了提高城市水环境整治项目的投资效益,有必要对项目绩效进行系统、全面地评价。文章在深入分析城市水环境整治项目特点的基础上,对城市水环境整治项目绩效评价指标体系进行整体设计,建立由目标层、准则层、指标层三个层次构成的指标体系框架。基于城市水环境整治项目绩效评价的原则,针对项目的复杂性和差异性,利用D-S证据理论和三角白化权函数在数据处理、数据融合等方面的优势,将D-S证据理论和三角白化权函数的灰色评估法结合起来进行研究,构建了基于D-S证据理论的城市水环境整治项目绩效评价模型。该模型可以充分利用所得到的信息,减少计算过程中的信息损失,使评价结果更加客观。最后,以太湖流域城市水环境整治项目为例,对太湖流域城市水环境整治项目进行绩效评价,验证了模型的科学性和有效性。

In order to improve investment benefits for urban water environment renovation project, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of the project systematically and comprehensively. Considering the characteristics of urban water environmental renovation project, the index system of its performance evaluation can be designed as a whole and the outline of index system can be defined as target layer, criterion layer and index layer. On the basis of the principle of the performance evaluation of urban water environmental renovation project, in view of the complexity and differences of the project, taken advantage of the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） Evidential Theory and triangle whitening function in data processing and data integration, with the combination between D-S evidential theory and the gray evaluation method of triangle whitening function, the thesis will construct the performance evaluation model of urban water environmental renovation project based on D-S evidential theory. The model can make full use of the acquired information and reduce the information losses in the process of calculation, making the evaluation result more objective. Finally, taken the urban water environment renovation project of Taihu Lake Basin as example, through means of the model and method, the performance evaluation of the project can be conducted, thus checked and verified the model scientific and effective.