现实制度主义与中美自贸区竞争

Realistic Institutionalism and U.S.-China Competition over Free Trade Agreements

全球贸易体系中的权力转移引发了关于国际贸易制度的竞争,作为世界上两个最大的贸易体,中国和美国成为其中的核心角色。由于WTO多哈回合谈判已经陷入了深度困境,中美两国在国际贸易领域的制度竞争主要表现为区域和双边层次的自贸区谈判竞争,两国都致力于通过领导自贸区谈判来获得新一轮国际贸易制度建设的主导权,其核心内容是对贸易伙伴的争夺和贸易规则的制定。作为守成的贸易大国,面对自身在既有国际贸易制度中的优势不断丧失,美国主动发起了新制度攻势,通过"3T"(TPP、TTIP和TiSA)谈判,来缔造对自身有利的新一代的国际贸易制度体系。作为崛起的贸易大国,中国是既有贸易体系的受益者,同时也积极通过搭建自身的自贸区网络,来回应美国施加的巨大制度压力。如果中美自贸区竞争能够保持制度的开放性和包容性,将有利于贸易领域的制度升级,从而带来全球贸易体系的新一轮整合;反之,如果这种制度竞争保持封闭性和排他性,则将导致贸易领域中的制度对抗,从而加剧全球贸易体系的分裂。中美自贸区竞争检验了作为折中主义理论成果的现实制度主义的基本论点,并展现了其逻辑魅力。

Power transition within the global trade system has generated competition within international trade institutions,and as the two states accounting for the largest share of global trade,the U.S.and China play a central role vis-à-vis this competition.After the Doha Round of the World Trade Organization(WTO) became engulfed in serious difficulties,institutional competition between the US and China with respect to trade shifted to the negotiation of bilateral or regional FTAs.Both states have attempted to take on a leadership role in the development of the future global trade order by leading FTA negotiations,the key issues being securing trade partners and the setting of the terms of trade.While presently the global leader with respect to trade,the United States has continued to see the erosion of its privileged position vis-à-vis the global trade system.In response,the US has gone on the offensive,actively initiating three new sets of institutions,and through negotiations around the so-called 3Ts(TPP,TTIP,and TiSA),seeks to mold a new set of trade rules that can secure its interests into the future.As a rising great state,China is both a beneficiary of the existing trade system,while it also seeks to establish its own network of FTAs in response to tremendous institutional pressure from the United States.If US-China competition over FTAs can ensure institutional liberalism and inclusiveness,this will assist in the enhancement of global trade institutions,bringing a new round of consolidation of international trade mechanisms.If on the other hand this institutional competition results in trade mechanisms which are closed and exclusive,this will result in serious frictions with respect to trade,and possibly even the demise of the global trade system.