区域贸易制度的和平效应分析——来自发展中国家的视角

An Analysis of the Effect of Regional Trade Institutions on Peace:A Developing Country Perspective

随着冷战结束，经济全球化和新兴经济体崛起为发展中国家区域经济一体化注入了新的活力，同时，发展中国家仍然普遍面临地区冲突所带来的紧张局势，而区域贸易制度和平效应的发挥则需要一定的条件。文章选取了19个发展中国家区域贸易制度作为观察对象，通过对比其在1982～1997年的一体化水平与冲突发生水平发现，只有在冲突基线风险为中等和高水平时，一体化水平越高，军事冲突发生的次数有减少的趋势；而在风险很低或者很高的情况下，上述相关性并不显著。基于对7个具体案例的分析发现，区域贸易制度安排的和平效应会受到预期目标、高层会晤机制等因素的影响，但和平效应的最终发挥，还取决于冲突的性质和国内政治机制的作用。

With the end of the Cold War,economic globalization and the rise of emerging economies have brought new vitality to regional economic integration involving developing countries.At the same time,developing countries continue to face pressure from conflicts at the regional level,with regional trade institutions yielding peace dividends only under certain circumstances.This article selects 19 regional trade institutions of developing countries,and compares their level of economic integration and the frequency of emerging conflicts from 1982-1997.It finds that when the risk of conflict is medium or high,the higher the level of integration,the lower the frequency of military conflict;on the other hand,when the risk is either extremely low or extremely high,this pattern ceases to be evident.On the basis of seven case studies,it finds that the effect of regional trade institutions on peace is conditioned on expected objectives,high level summits and other factors,but ultimately depends on the nature of the specific conflict and the role of domestic political institutions.