务工经历与农业人口城市化意愿--以中西部七省(市)为例的研究

Migration Experiences and Hukou Conversion Intention of Rural Population in China——A Case Study Based on 7 Provinces' Survey in Mid-West Region

利用中西部7省(直辖市)万份农业人口调查数据,依据务工经历及打算将其划分为4类子群体,采用Logistic模型Bootsrap分层方法,从个人、家庭、所在村以及务工城市4个层面因素,分析了农业人口城市化意愿的影响因素。结果显示,有外出务工经历及打算的人群,其城市化意愿明显强于没有外出务工经历、也不打算外出务工的人群;婚姻、受教育程度、非农业技能等个人因素,耕地面积、土地流转、家庭务工人数以及家庭年收入等家庭因素,是否有图书室(馆)、村民新农合比例、农业产值等所在村因素,以及打工是否被歧视、被拖欠过工资等城市因素对务工经历与打算不同的农业人口,其城市化意愿影响的显著性各有不同。

Using rural population survey data in the midwest 7 provinces （ including a mumclpahty） in China, this article analyzes Hukou conversion intention of 4 sub groups of agricultural popuation, divided by migration experience and willingness, based on multilevel factors of individual, family, village and city by using logistic Bootsrap method. It shows that population with rural-urban migrant experiences and willingnesses has higher intention of getting urban Hukou compared with population with neither migrant experiences nor willingnesses. Individual factors like marital status, education, non-agricultural skills training, family factors like cultivated land size, land transfer, migrant numbers of family members and household income, village hometown factors like library, the new rural cooperative medical system level and agricultural output value, and city factors like discrimination and wages arrears show different significant or insignificant influcences on Hukou conversion intention of rural population with various migration experiences and willingnesses. The findings can provide practical suggestions of improving real urbanization level from both locally non-argricultured and rual-urban migrating urbanization in China.