水资源资产价格模糊数学综合评价指标体系构建——以黑河中游张掖市为例

Construction of the evaluation system of water asset price with fuzzy comprehensive assessment indexes:taking Zhangye Prefecture in Heihe River basin as an example

针对水资源本身的模糊性和不确定性,基于模糊数学综合评价模型,从水量、水质、人口、社会经济和生态环境5个方面选取18个评价指标,结合AHP法与熵权法确定指标权重,对张掖市2010-2014年的水资源价格进行动态评价,水价计算模糊数学模型由水资源价值评价和水资源价格计算两部分组成.结果表明:采用水资源价值模糊综合指数对水资源价值进行测算,5 a间张掖市水资源模糊综合指数介于水资源价值指数的"中等"与"偏低"之间,说明张掖市水资源价值属于中等偏低;在2010-2014年5 a间水资源价格呈明显上升趋势,核算期初的2010年为2.12元·m^(-3),证实了张掖市目前水资源价格偏低,水资源资产价格存在较大的上升空间,而核算期末的2014年最高达4.96元·m^(-3).基于熵权与AHP相结合确定权重的水资源价格模糊数学综合评价模型,评价结果更客观合理,为下一步水资产负债表编制中水资产与负债价值核算提供数据支持.

In view of the fuzziness and uncertainty of the water resource asset value,in this paper,based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model,18 evaluation indicators are selected from the five aspects（water quanti-ty,water quality,population,social economy and ecological environment）,in order to evaluate the value of wa-ter resources from 2010 to 2014 in Zhangye Prefecture. The entropy weights and AHP are combined to determine the index weight. Water price calculation model is made up with two parts（from the water resource value evalua-tion model and the water resource rice calculation model）. It is found that：（1）the fuzzy comprehensive index of water resource value in Zhangye Prefecture is 3. 0226 in 2010,showing water resource value in the prefecture be-longs to lower-middle;（2）considering many factors of water price,the price had a substantial upward trend, from 2. 12 Yuan·m-3 in 2010 to 4. 96 Yuan·m-3 in 2014;（3）the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on combination entropy weight with AHP is objective and reasonable,which provides the theory and method sup-port for compiling the next water balance sheet.