刘易斯拐点、资本非农化倾向和二元经济结构转化

Lewis Turning Point,the Capital Non-agricultural Tendency and Transformation of Dual Economic Structure

鉴于近年来我国二元经济结构转化的停滞,本文在一个逻辑自洽的理论分析框架下探讨了资本非农化倾向与二元经济差距之间的门槛关系,研究结果发现:(1)当经济尚未跨过刘易斯拐点,农业部门存在着大量的剩余劳动力时,资本非农化倾向将引起二元经济差距较大幅度的降低;(2)当经济跨过(或接近)刘易斯拐点,农业部门的剩余劳动力不断减少时,资本非农化倾向对与二元经济结构转化的促进作用将逐渐降低。在此基础上,本文还利用1978-2013年的省际面板数据进行了实证分析,结果,很好的证实了上述逻辑。最后为本文的结论性述评。

Owing to stagnation of China's dual economic structure in recent years,this paper discusses the threshold characteristics between capital non-agricultural tendency and dual economic structure. The results find that when the economy has not yet crossed the Lewis turning point and the agricultural sector still has a lot of surplus labor,the dual economic gap would be significantly decreased by the increasing of capital non-agricultural tendency. At the same time,the role of capital non-agricultural tendency will be weakened when the economy has stepped into the Lewis turning point and the labor of agricultural sector has a decrease. Additionally,this paper makes an empirical analysis by using the panel data from 1978 to 2013,and the empirical results confirms the above logic. Finally,the conclusions and some suggestions are given.