贫困缺口总指数的构造、分解与应用

Construction,Decomposition and Application of Poverty Gap Index

本文构造了一个新贫困指数P_G,通过对P_G指数的因素分解及衍生指数的构造,提出了一些重要贫困指标的预测和推算办法。基于CHNS 1991—2011年跨度20年的8轮调查数据的实证分析结果表明,近20年来我国农村总贫困缺口率呈现年均6.39%的缩减率,其主要原因是贫困人口总规模递减,而另外两个因素,即平均贫困缺口水平和贫困差异度则呈现年均小幅上升趋势,表明减贫质量不容乐观;以现有减贫模式对我国农村2020年的平均贫困缺口水平、贫困不平等程度、贫困规模等指标进行预测显示,减贫目标依然任重道远;根据研究结论,本文提出了采用精准减贫,重心在于提升贫困人口获取收入的能力和缩小贫困不平等程度的相关建议。

This paper constructs poverty index,and based on the factor decomposition of the derived indexes are proposed to predict some important indicators of poverty. Empirical results based on 1991—2011 span 20 years 8 rounds of survey data from CHNS show that,in rural China,the total poverty gap rate with an average annual decline rate of 6. 4%,is due to the total size of the poverty population decline,and the other two factors,i. e.,the average poverty gap and the poverty level discrepancy show annual slightly rising trend,which mean the quality of poverty reduction is not optimistic;assuming that the existing poverty reduction mode can be sustained,the forecasting indicators of average poverty gap level,poverty inequality degree and poverty scale in 2020 show that there will be a long way to achieve the poverty reduction target.; we propose to take measures of precision poverty reduction,focus on improving earning power of poor population,and reducing poverty inequality.