基于多元回归的陕西苹果种植成本分析

An analysis of apple-planting cost in Shaanxi province based on the multiple regression

针对陕西苹果种植成本上升问题,基于2001—2013年陕西苹果种植成本明细数据,通过多元回归分析法构建苹果种植成本回归模型,并对回归模型进行拟合优度检验,对苹果种植成本项目进行t检验。结果表明,家庭用工、雇工费用、化肥费和农药费是影响陕西省苹果种植成本的主要因素,该多元回归模型可用于苹果的种植成本效益评估。陕西省苹果种植业可通过增加种植面积、增加产量的方式实现增收目的。此外,转变农业补贴方式、用物化劳动替代活劳动、提高用工效率等策略可有效降低苹果种植成本。

Aiming at the question of the increasing apple-planting cost in shaanxi province,the data of apple-planting cost in detail from 2001 to 2013was collected,and the apple-planting cost regression model was built by means of the multiple regression method.Meanwhile,the goodness of fit test for the regression model was verified and t test was performed for the apple-planting cost.The results show that the apple-planting cost is influenced mainly by factors of the family labor,employment,chemical fertilizers and pesticides.The tested multiple regression model can be effectively applied to the benefit evaluation of agricultural cost in apple planting.It is suggested that the planting area and the apple yield should be increased in Shaanxi province in order to enhance the income. Moreover,the transformation of agricultural subsidies,the employment of the materialized labor instead of the live labor and the improvement of labor efficiency can also greatly reduce the apple-planting cost.