黄河三角洲水资源利用与经济增长的动态响应

Dynamic Relationship between Water Resource Use and Economic Growth in the Yellow River Delta Based on VAR Method

选取黄河三角洲高效生态经济区1998-2013年经济增长和水资源利用数据,通过构建VAR模型检验了变量平稳性和协整性,分析了广义脉冲响应及预测方差分解,对经济区水资源利用与经济增长的均衡关系和动态性进行实证研究。结果表明:黄河三角洲高效生态经济区的经济增长与生活用水量间存有长期均衡关系,而总量用水、工业用水和农业用水与经济增长间无长期均衡关系,这与当前人们对物质生活水平的需求急剧增加的现状相符;水资源利用对经济增长的脉冲响应滞后时间较长,而经济增长对水资源利用的脉冲响应滞后时间相对较短,且皆具有非渐进性。除工业用水外,经济增长对水资源利用的单位冲击响应累计值均为负值;除生活用水外,水资源利用对经济增长的单位冲击响应累计值均为负值。说明经济区经济发展中生活用水量上升态势显著,水资源是制约其经济发展的主要因素之一,而其它用水量随着经济发展得到了较好的控制;经济区的经济增长对水资源利用的预测方差贡献度较大,但水资源利用对其经济增长的预测方差贡献度较低。建议加强对生活节水新技术的投入、建立起合理的水资源利用虚拟交易机制,开发水资源保护体系。

The dynamic interactions between water resource use and economic growth in the highly effective ecology economic zone of the Yellow River was investigated based on VAR method according to the data of water resource and GDP indices from 1998 to 2013. Methods mainly included the variable stationary characterization,impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis. Results show that there were long time dynamic co- integration relationship between domestic water and economic growth,but there was no such relationship between economic growth and the total amount of water,industrial water and agricultural water,which was consistent with the current situation that people＇s material life level demand has increased dramatically. It was a long time for the impact of the water resource use on economic growth,but economic growth on water resource use was short-time,and they were non-asymptotic. Economic growth of unit impulse response cumulative value of water resource utilization was negative without the industrial water,and it was the same to water resource use to economic growth without the domestic water,indicating that economic growth could lead to the rise of domestic water consumption;water is one of the main factors restricting the development of its economy,and other water consumption is better controlled. Furthermore,the analysis of variance decomposition indicated that the economic growth is the main variable to explain the forecasting mean square error of the water resource. So,input to new domestic water-saving technology should be strengthened,and reasonable water resource using virtual trading mechanism should be established,and water resource protection system should be developed as well.