供给侧改革对产业结构升级的空间效应研究——基于空间面板杜宾模型

The Spatial Effect of Reform of the Supply Side on Industrial Structure Upgrading——Based on Spatial Panel Durbin Models

本文构建了产业结构高级化和合理化的指标评价体系，从产业结构高级化和合理化两个维度衡量产业结构升级，并引入了地方政府基础建设类支出、科学支出、税收政策、国有化程度以及金融环境等变量，基于2001—2013年全国31省数据，建立空间面板杜宾模型，分析了供给侧改革对产业结构升级的空间效应。实证结果显示：总体上，基础建设类支出和税收政策对产业结构高级化和合理化均存在负向空间效应，不利于我国产业结构的升级；科技支出和金融业发展对产业结构高级化和合理化均存在正向空间效应，有助于我国产业结构的升级。特别的，国有化程度对产业结构高级化和合理化具有显著的正向空间溢出效应；基础建设类支出对产业结构高级化和合理化具有负向的空间溢出效应。

Through building a comprehensive indicator system for High - level industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization, this paper used the High - level industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization of two dimensions to measure the upgrading of industrial structure. Then by using the local government infrastructure spending, spending on science, business tax, and financial en- vironment variables, this paper established spatial panel durbin models based on the national 31 provinces from 2001 to 2013 data. The empirical results show that： overall, infrastructure spending and tax policy have negative space effect on High - level industrial structure and industrial structure rationalization; scientific research expenditure and financial sector development have positive space effect; in par- titular, nationalization degree has significant positive spillover effect space; infrastructure class has negative spillover effects of space.