基于复杂网络理论的主动配电网多级运行风险快速评估

Rapid Assessment of Multistage Operation Risk of Active Distribution Network Based on Complex Network Theory

主动配电网运行状态的时变性、网络元件的多样性和随机模糊性、自动化系统的主动自愈性对系统的安全稳定运行提出了新的挑战。将复杂网络理论应用于风险评估,建立了一套具有运行风险快速预警能力、多级运行风险分析能力、全面体现时空间及动静态运行风险能力的主动配电网运行风险评估体系。该体系依托主动配电网自动化系统及可信性理论等数学工具,能够对网络结构和元件的变化进行实时响应并给出定性和定量的多级运行风险评估结果以协助主动配电网调度工作,从而降低系统风险,防止大面积停电事故的发生。最后,通过实例仿真验证了所述评估方法的可行性、快速性、灵活性和适用性,为复杂网络理论在电力系统中的应用提出了新的研究及应用方向。

The time-varying topological structure,device and state diversity and random fuzziness and the self-healing ability of the active distribution network have brought new operational risks and challenges to the safety of the power grid.As methods of traditional analysis of the power system can hardly satisfy the demand of active distribution network,a new method is badly needed for assessment of active distribution network＇s operational risks and providing operational advice for automation system and dispatchers.Based on the complex network theory and the features of active distribution network,a rapid and multi-level operational risk assessment system capable for real-time risk warning and multistage risk analysis is proposed,which allows for sufficient time to make appropriate operational decisions and real-time protection of the power grid.On the premise of the active distribution automation system and some advanced mathematical tools such as the credibility theory,the system proposed can rapidly respond to the change of network structure and components,including the controllable loads,electric cars,distributed generators and energy storage devices.Qualitative and quantitative multistage operation risk assessment results are given to assist dispatchers to reduce the risks of system and prevent large area blackout.Finally,an example is given to illustrate the feasibility,rapidity,flexibility,practicality and applicability of the operational risk assessment system.