货币政策传导过程中的阻塞机制--对宽松货币政策下通货膨胀率下降的研究

The Blocking Mechanism in the Process of Monetary Policy Transmission——A Research on Inflation Rate Declining in Relaxed Monetary Policy Environment

本文通过建立VAR模型,并结合中国经济数据进行实证分析,研究发现:中国货币政策传导过程中利率与货币供给量之间以及货币供给量与实体经济之间存在明显的时滞效应;M_0、M_1、M_2三个层次的货币流通速度都出现了不同程度的下降;名义货币供给量与进入实体经济的实际货币供给量之间的差额即有效货币供给缺口较大。这三者的共同作用形成货币政策传导过程中的阻塞机制,由此导致货币政策传导不畅,出现宽松货币政策下的通货膨胀率下降的"反常"现象。

In this paper, the author establishes a VAR model and uses the China＇s economic data to present an empiri- cal analysis. It＇s found that there are obvious lag effects between interest rates and money supply and between money supply and real economy in the process of monetary policy transmission; the velocities of M0, M1 and M2 on three levels decline to a different extent; the gap between nominal money supply and real money supply into real economy, i.e. effec- tive money supply gap, is relatively great. The combined result of the above three effects forms the blocking mechanism in the process of monetary policy transmission, which results in ＂abnormal＂ phenomenon, such as the poor transmission of monetary policy and the inflation rate declining in relaxed monetary policy environment.