金融系统性风险的度量与监测研究

A Study of the Measuring and Monitoring of Financial Systemic Risk

对金融系统性风险准确度量是防范和应对系统性风险、实施宏观审慎监管的基础,国际金融危机的爆发更加凸显了系统性风险度量与监测的重要性。综合指数法和早期预警系统、网络分析法和矩阵法、投资组合法、关联研究法等度量方法从点、线、面三个层次对金融系统性风险进行了全方位的测度和评估,但是每一种度量方法都具有一定的假定条件和适用范围,方法本身的缺陷和适用性问题也不容忽视。此外,由于我国经济金融系统具有一定的异质性,在借鉴使用国外系统性风险度量方法时,必须结合我国的具体国情进行改造创新,使其符合我国的金融现实。

Accurate measurement of financial systemic risk is the basis for guarding against and responding to systemic risk. It is also crucial for the implementation of macro-prudential regulation. The outbreak of global financial crisis highlights the importance of measuring and monitoring systemic risk. The existing methods, including the composite index and early warning systems, network analysis, the portfolio method, and the interconnectedness method, measure and evaluate financial systemic risk comprehensively from the dot-line-plane three levels. But, every method has certain assumptions and scope of application. The flaws and limitations of applicability of every method should not be ignored. In addition, because China＇s economic and financial system has certain heterogeneity, when we adopt foreign methods in measuring China＇ s financial systemic risk, we must combine the methods with China＇s specific national conditions, revise the methods creatively and make sure the methods can meet our financial reality.