摘要
随着我国人口老龄化问题日益凸显,我国房地产价格出现一定的波动,人口年龄结构已成为影响住房价格变动的重要因素。据此,本文选取1999-2014年省际面板数据,构建基准模型和嵌套模型、利用面板协整的方法探讨了人口老龄化对房地产价格所产生的影响。实证结果表明,人口数量的增长确实是推动我国房地产价格上涨的重要因素,其作用效果受老龄化程度的影响,老龄化程度的加剧会减缓房价上升速度。
As the population age structure and urbanization prices＇changes, respectively structure＇s time and space expression, the population development are the key factors affecting real estate In the context of population ageing in China, this es- say employs panel smooth transition regression model to study the ageing and urban- ization＇s influence to real estate prices. Our experimental results show that the population growth is indeed an important factor in promoting China＇s real estate prices, and this influence shows significant nonlinear characteristics. The increas- ing of population ageing will weaken this positive effect leading real estate prices to decline. Our conclusions can get some enlightenment on China＇s real estate market regulation.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2016年第5期93-96,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目"房价波动对系统性金融风险影响的传导机制
动态特征及对策研究"(15CJY080)资助
关键词
老龄化
房地产价格
嵌套模型
面板协整
Ageing
Real Estate Prices Fluctuation
Nested Model
Panel Cointegation
