山区公路御灾可靠度评估技术研究

Reliability Evaluation on Disaster Prevention for Rural Highway

频发的灾害性天气导致山区公路发生严重损毁,目前这一方面的防灾、预警意识比较薄弱。针对这一问题,在实地踏勘、调查的基础上,筛选出对山区公路安全运行影响较为突出的影响因子,并以此作为评价指标,构建了比较全面的山区公路御灾可靠度评价体系。针对单一评价指标,分别制定了评价分级标准并赋以权重。其次,运用模糊综合评估的原理,建立了山区公路御灾可靠度的评估计算方法,最后选取实际案例对该方法进行验证。研究表明:提出的评价方法能有效地反映山区公路御灾可靠度的实际水平,有助于公路管理部门及时地采取防治措施。

Due to frequent disastrous weather, rural highway usually suffer severe damage. However, local highway departments have low awareness of disaster prevention and pre-warning. To remedy this situation, we establish a comprehensive evaluation system of disaster prevention reliability for rural highway, and several influential factors are selected as evaluating indexes after field investigations. For each indicator, the grading standards and weight are intrduced. Furthermore based on the principle of fuzzy mathematics, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method of disaster prevention reliability is proposed. Finally the method is verified after analyzing an engineering example. The conclusion indicates that： reliability evaluation method of disaster prevention based on the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is efficient and reliable, which can reflect the actual situation of rural highway and help the departments take precautions against disasters.