济宁市流行性腮腺炎与气象相关影响因素研究

Association between incidence of mumps and meteorological factors in Ji'ning

目的研究山东省济宁市气象因素对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响,为流行性腮腺炎防控提供理论依据。方法收集济宁市2011年1月1日到2013年12月31日流行性腮腺炎疾病日监测数据及同期逐日气象数据,结合数据特征,通过构建分布滞后非线性模型,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势的基础上研究气象因素对流行性腮腺炎发病的影响。结果 2011—2013年济宁市共报告流行性腮腺炎7 309例,男性发病例数（5 011例）多于女性（2 298例）,性别比为2.18∶1;4～15岁儿童最多,占74.98%。以气温15.2℃为参照,日平均气温为-8.8℃、滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.09（95%CI：0.94～1.27）;以相对湿度75%为参照,日平均相对湿度为100%、滞后0 d时RR值最高,为1.06（95%CI：1.01～1.13）。以气温15.2℃为参照,日平均气温达到最高（32℃）时,滞后30 d的总体效应值（RR）为0.28（95%CI：0.14～0.53）;以相对湿度75%为参照,日平均相对湿度达到最高（100%）时,滞后30 d的RR值为2.80（95%CI：1.66～4.71）,且均有统计学意义（P〈0.05）。结论气象因素对流行性腮腺炎的影响呈非线性,应密切监测气象因素,做好防控工作。

Objective To study the relationship between meteorological factors and mumps so as to provide scientific guidance for the prevention and control of mumps. Methods The time-series data of daily mumps cases and seven climate variables（daily average temperature, the highest temperature, the lowest temperature and the average relative humidity, precipitation,average wind speed, sunshine time） from 1 January, 2011 to 31 December, 2013 were extracted and prepared for the analysis.Distributed lag nonlinear model was fitted to reveal the effect of meteorological factors on the mumps incidence after controlling the long-term and seasonal trend. Results From 2011 to 2013, a total of 7 309 mumps cases were found in Ji＇ning. Mumps was more common in men than women and the ratio between males and females was 2.18 ∶1（5 011∶2 298）. Among the cases,over 74% cases occurred in children aged 4-15 years. The risk was the highest when daily mean temperature was-8.8 ℃ on lag 0 day as the relative risk（RR） was 1.09（95%CI： 0.94-1.27）; when relative humidity was 100% on lag 0 days,the RR was1.06（95% CI： 1.01-1.13） as the highest. Daily average temperature of 32 ℃ presented a delayed effect for 30 days,with cumulative RRs less than 1 and had statistical significance（RR=0.28, 95%CI： 0.14-0.53）. Daily average relative humidity of100% presented a delayed effect for 30 days, with cumulative RRs greater than 1 and had statistical significance（RR=2.80,95%CI： 1.66-4.71）.Conclusion The influence of meteorological factors on the mumps is nonlinear. It is necessary to closely monitor the meteorological factors to prevent and control the spread of mumps.