货币政策、生产投资结构与温州区域性金融危机——基于奥地利商业周期理论的分析视角

Monetary Policy,Production Structure and Wenzhou Financial Crisis——Based on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory

爆发于2011年9月并持续数年的温州区域性金融危机,向理论界提出了两个命题:危机爆发的原因是什么?以及为何只在温州爆发?针对第一个命题,已有研究大多将危机爆发原因归结为宏观货币政策变动,但对其中的微观传导机制缺乏深入理解。本文着重回答危机的成因,并试图探究货币政策影响区域性金融危机的微观作用机制。基于奥地利商业周期理论(ABCT)的分析框架,本文剖析了央行货币政策变动如何通过利率价格信号,来扭曲温州经济的生产和投资结构,并最终引发企业债务危机和民间借贷危机的全过程。在此过程中,国家产业扶持政策和国有银行主导金融体系下的"银企合谋"起到了加速危机爆发的调节作用。本研究有助于厘清外生性冲击对温州区域金融危机爆发的微观作用机理,以及温州金融综合改革的相关政策优化。

This paper attempts to explainthe finance crisis of Wenzhouin China in September 2011 by using the Austrian business cycle theory. We argue that the key determining factor to trigger this financial crisis is the Monetary easing accompanied by the 4 trillion economic stimulus planimplemented by the government in 2008. Based on the Austrian business cycle theory,this paper points out that the central bank's loose monetary policy caused the distortion of the market rate and the production structure, thereby inducing private enterprises to invest a large amount of invalid and speculative activities, then the capital chain rupture occurred after the central bank tightening monetary policy, which eventually led to the financial crisis in Wenzhou. Based on the case of Wenzhou, we also attempt to develop and perfect the ABCT framework,and to emphasize the important influence of the Wenzhou' religious culture.