考虑认知不确定的雷达功率放大系统可靠性评估

Reliability evaluation of radar power amplification system considering epistemic uncertainty

高可靠性部件短时间内很难得到足够的性能数据,致使对部件退化规律的认知存在一定不确定性,无法准确估计系统的可靠性。为实现对系统可靠性准确估计,假定部件性能参数的分布参数为区间变量,建立了基于区间变量的部件性能参数分布模型,给出了部件状态概率的计算方法。对状态性能区间边界进行补偿,定义了区间通用生成函数及其运算法则,提出了考虑认知不确定性的多态系统可靠性评估方法,并对某型雷达功率放大分系统的可靠性进行分析。本文方法克服了性能参数分布信息缺少、无法准确建立状态性能参数分布模型的不足,具有很强的通用性和工程应用价值。

There is epistemic uncertainty in degradation law of a high-reliability component because it is hard to obtain its adequate performance data within a short time,and system reliability cannot be accurately estimated. For the purpose of accurate estimation of system reliability,assuming that the component performance distribution parameter was the interval variable,a component＇performance parameter distribution model was built based on interval parameter variable and a computational method of the interval-valued state probability was provided. The boundary of the state performance interval was compensated,the interval-valued universal generating function and its algorithm were defined,an assessment method of interval-valued reliability of the multi-state system in consideration of epistemic uncertainty was proposed,and the reliability of a power amplification system was analyzed. This method not only avoids the lack of distribution information of the performance parameters,but also accurately builds a distribution model of the performance parameters. Therefore,it is widely used in engineering.