世界银行ICP2011的方法、指标与数据问题研究

On Methods,Indicators and Data of World Bank's International Comparison Program 2011

本文基于国民经济核算理论建立了国际比较项目的理论基础,论述了ICP2011的方法框架和测算步骤。在理论和方法探讨的基础之上,对ICP2011中最为重要的三个经济指标——购买力平价、实际GDP和价格水平指数进行了详细剖析,分别从合理性、局限性和应用范围三个角度对ICP2011数据进行了系统探讨。研究表明:国际比较项目具有扎实的统计理论基础,从经济理论视角来看,ICP2011数据具有整体合理性。但需要注意的是,由于购买力平价是通过复杂统计方法计算得到的价格指数,存在统计误差,因而利用ICP2011数据对经济结构差异较大的国家进行比较时,需对可能存在的误差有所警惕。

Based on the theory of National Accounts, this paper provides the theoretical basis of international comparison program （ICP）, and discusses the methodological framework and calculation steps of ICP2011. Following the discussion on the theories and methods, this paper also analyzes three of the most important indicators of the ICP2011, called Purchasing Power Parity, Real GDP and Price Level Indexes. Furthermore, this paper systematically investigates the ICP2011 data for the following three aspects, rationality, limitation and application. The conclusions indicate that ICP2011 data shows overall rationality from the view of economic theories due to the firm statistical basis of the ICP. However, what called for special attention is that it may exist statistical errors because of complicated statistical methods which are employed in calculating the Purehasing Power Parity. Consequently, we should be cautious to the possible errors when compare countries with very different economic structures using ICP2011 data.