财政支出波动性对居民消费的影响

Influence of Fluctuation of Financial Expenditure on Consumption of Residents

随着中国经济进入新常态,消费已然成为整个国民经济发展的重要支撑。然而财政支出的不确定性也会通过各种传导机制影响居民整体消费水平。从已有文献来看,大部分学者都只是基于财政支出水平量对消费产生的影响进行研究,对财政支出波动性与消费之间关系的理论研究仍然不足。基于VAR模型下,首先以财政支出的一阶差分量作为财政支出波动量,然后对两者之间的关系进行研究发现,财政支出波动与居民消费之间存在着长期的均衡关系,财政支出的正向变动会相应地带来消费水平的减少,并且这种波动对消费的影响大概持续一年左右。

With the Chinese economy has entered a new norm, consumption has become an important support for the develop- ment of the entire national economy. However, fiscal expenditure uncertainty will affect the overall level of consumption through va- rious transmission mechanism. From the view of the existing literatures, the study of most scholars are based on the level of financial expenditure on consumption, theoretical research on the relationship between fiscal expenditure and consumption volatility is still in- sufficient. This paper is on the basis of the VAR model, first of all to regard fiscal expenditure of first - order difference component as the volatility of fiscal expenditure and then the relationship between the two has studied. The results indicate that fiscal there ex- ists a long - term equilibrium relationship between expenditure fluctuation and resident consumption. Besides that fiscal expenditure positive change will corresponding bring consumption level reduced, and effects of such fluctuations on consumption lasts about a year or so.