四川省卫生人力资源配置现状与预测

Study on Current Situation and Forecast of Health Human Resource Allocation in Sichuan Province

目的:探讨四川省卫生人力资源配置现状并进行预测,为相关部门制定政策提供参考。方法:对四川省2009-2014年卫生人力资源配置现状进行描述统计,运用基尼系数(Gini)对卫生人力资源配置公平性进行评价,同时采用ARIMA模型进行预测分析。结果:四川省卫生人力资源配置得到改善,但每千人口卫技人员数量不足,卫技人员职称结构有待优化,按地理分布的卫生人力资源配置严重不公平,ARIMA模型对卫生人员预测结果合理,2020年卫生人力资源公平性将得到改善。结论:继续加大卫技人员配置力度,优化职称结构,改善按地理分布的卫生人力资源配置公平性,ARIMA模型预测结果可供相关部门参考。

Objective： To discuss the status quo of health human resource allocation in Sichuan province and forecast to provide reference for relevant departments. Methods： We used descriptive statistics to health human resource allocation in Sichuan province from 2009 to 2014,used Gini coefficient to evaluate health human resource equity,and used ARIMA model to forecast. Results： Health human resources allocation were improved in Sichuan province,but the number of health personnel per thousand population was not enough,the title structure of health personnel needed to be optimized,health human resources allocation according to the geographic distribution were severely unfair,the forecast results of health human resource by ARIMA model were reasonable. Health human resources equity would be improved in 2020. Conclusion： We should continue to increase Health personnel allocation dynamics,optimize the title structure,improve the fairness of health human resources allocation according to geographical distribution. The results of ARIMA model predictions can provide reference to the relevant departments.