浙江沿海地区海洋经济脆弱性及障碍因素分析

MARINE ECONOMY VULNERABILITY AND ITS OBSTACLES OF ZHEJIANG COASTAL AREAS

采用集对分析和障碍度分析对2000—2013年浙江沿海地区海洋经济脆弱性的变化趋势及主要影响因素进行研究。结果表明:1)浙江沿海地区海洋经济的敏感性整体呈下降趋势,中间波动幅度较大,应对性整体呈上升趋势,海洋经济脆弱性整体下降;2)回归分析表明应对能力对浙江沿海地区海洋经济脆弱性的影响起主导作用;3)障碍度分析揭示出海洋资源过度开发、海洋环境污染严重、海洋科技水平低是阻碍其应对性增强的主要因素。最后提出降低浙江沿海地区海洋经济脆弱性的对策,主要包括改变传统海洋经济发展方式、合理利用资源,加大对海洋教育与科技的投入,加强海洋污染治理与保护等。

This paper uses set pair analysis and obstacle degree to study the trend and leading factors of marine economic vulnerability in Zhejiang＇s coastal area during 2000-2013 with results showing a descending sensitivity with large fluctuation in the middle,rising trend of response,a decreasing marine economy vulnerability. Regression analysis shows the response ability is the leading factor to the marine economy vulnerability. Obstacle analysis indicates over-developed oceanic resources,polluted oceanic environment,low oceanic science and technology,which are the main factors against the response ability. This paper presents approaches to reducing marine economy vulnerability of Zhejiang＇s coastal area,including altering the conventional marine development ways,rationally use marine resources,inputting on marine education and science and technology,and intensifying treating and protecting marine environment.