基于社会核算矩阵的中国煤炭产业研究

RESEARCH ON CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY BASED ON SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX

文章基于社会核算矩阵测度了主要煤炭供给省区煤炭供给变动对其他地区其他部门的乘数效应,在此基础上,借助结构路径分析分解了乘数效应,识别出了其传导的基础路径和复合回路,以及关键的节点部门。结果表明:最主要的基础路径是煤炭—电力路径,且仅限于本省区;煤炭供给变动对工业部门影响较大,且存在多条复合路径,如煤炭—化工路径、煤炭—石油路径,煤炭—金属冶炼路径等。主要的关键节点部门表现为化学工业、金属冶炼及压延工业、非金属矿物制品业、交通运输和仓储业等。因此,中国煤炭供给侧改革应该重点调控煤电产业,差异化限制煤炭使用,鼓励技术创新;构建现代能源储运网络,进一步优化输电通道;差异化调控煤炭关联产业,减少对宏观经济的冲击。

This paper uses SAM to measure the multiple effect of coal supply change of coal area to other areas and other departments,which is decomposed via path analysis so as to identify the conducted basic path and compound path and key node departments. The main basic path is coal-electricity path,only limited inside the province. Changes in coal supply impact industrial sectors with multiple compound paths,such as coal-chemicals path,coal-oil path,coalmetallurgy path,etc. The major node departments include chemicals industry,metallurgy,non-metallic mineral products,transportation,and warehousing. Reform of China ＇s coal supply shall be focused on planning coalelectricity,differentiating coal uses, supporting technical innovation, establishing modern energy storage and transportation network,optimizing electricity transporting channels,differentiating coal-related industries to reduce their impacts on macroscopic economy.