中国市场时机效应强化因素实证研究

Empirical Study on the Strengthening Factors of Market Timing Effect in China

通过合理选择样本区间和引入强化因素对中国证券市场的时机效应进行了检验。结果表明,中国各项法规政策及监管松紧的改变对企业融资结构产生显著的影响,采用股改基本完成以后的样本区间更能反映市场的真实情况。在对投资者需求、盈利能力、偿债能力、股本结构等大量变量进行检验后,发现上市公司的市场时机效应当现金充裕时显著加强,并且在考虑了其他控制变量和相关法规约束后,该结果仍具有稳健性。

This paper tests the strengthening factors of market timing effect in Chinese stock market by properly selecting sample intervals and introducing strengthening factors. The results show that the changes of regulation and policy have significant impacts on corporate financing structure especially after the share reform is completed. By testing a large number of variables such as investor demand,profitability,solvency and capital structure,the paper finds that market timing effect of listed companies is significantly strengthened when they have enough cash. The result is robust after taking into account the relevant laws and regulations.