实施中期财政规划的路径与条件研究

Study on the Path and Conditions of Medium-term Fiscal Planning

中期财政规划是预算管理的重要工具。本文从规范角度分析了中期财政规划的目标、功能定位、实施路径和条件因素,目标是防止财政跨期安排"事"与"钱"脱节的不确定性,增强可预见性和可持续性,化解财政风险;功能定位在提高政府治理能力;路径包括四个环节:预测与评估、决策与配置、执行与遵从、绩效与激励相容机制,并在关键环节根据条件、制约因素进一步分层、分步推进。在此基础上,简要评估了我国中期财政规划实践进展及问题,并提出相关政策建议:进一步提高对中期财政规划的重视程度;完善体制机制增强收支可预期性,完善技术能力提高预测的准确性;健全保障机制,增强中期财政规划决策的长期思维;进一步增强中期财政规划的约束力;强化激励相容机制建设,提高政府部门治理能力;完善配套制度、条件等。

Medium-term Fiscal Planning（MTFP） is an important budgetary management instrument. This paper analyzed the target, function, path and conditions of MTFP using normative analyzing method. The target of MTFP is to prevent the disconnection of money and responsibility by fiscal inter-period arrangement, enhance predictability and sustainability and dissolve fiscal risks. Its function is to improve state governance.The paths include four aspects： prediction and evaluation, decision-making and distribution, execution and compliance, performance and incentive compatibility mechanism. The key aspects should be promoted hierarchical and step by step according to conditions and restraining factors. Then this paper evaluated the progress and problems of Chinese MTFP, and makes some policy recommendations： to take more emphasis on MTFP,to improve revenue and expenditure prediction institution and prediction accuracy, to improve the ensuring mechanism and the long-term thinking of MTFP, to strengthen the constraining force of MTFP, to strengthen the incentive compatibility mechanism construction, to enhance the state governance capacity, to improve the relevant systems and conditions, and so on.