中等收入国家的国际制度“陷阱”

Middle-Income Countries and International Regulatory “Trap”

20世纪80年代以来,更多的发展中国家选择了外向型的经济模式,参与全球价值链贸易的程度也不断加深,但发展中国家与发达国家之间的收入差距持续保持,并没有出现经济学家普遍预测的收敛现象。尤其是处于中等收入水平的新兴国家,尽管参与全球价值链的程度很深,但受到国际经贸规则的限制也更大,使它们难以利用产业政策来实现产业升级,摆脱中等收入陷阱。通过对全球价值链数据的初步回归分析,本文发现参与全球价值链有利于提升低收入和中低收入国家的经济增长,但对中高收入国家的经济增长则没有显著影响。因此,对中等收入国家来说,实现经济持续增长不仅需要内部制度和治理改革,也需要对现行国际经贸规则进行改革,以争取足够的产业政策空间。这个研究有助于我们重新理解全球化对发展中国家的影响。单纯融入或抵制全球化并不必然给发展中国家带来经济利益。这为中国在国际规制和全球治理方面的改革诉求提供了有力的理论和实证支持。

The era of globalization has witnessed an increasing participation of developing countries in international trade organized within global value chains(GVCs),but it did not bring the widely expected income convergence between developed and developing countries.The author argues that international economic regulations have led to greater shrinking policy space for middle-income countries,making them more difficult to climb the development ladder and escape the middle-income trap.Using the GVC database,the author finds that participation in GVCs has no significant effect on economic growth for upper-middle income countries whereas low and lower-middle income countries benefit from their participation in GVCs.It indicates that development-oriented international regulatory reform should focus on enhancing policy space in developing countries.