基于模糊元胞自动机的群体性突发事件态势评估

Situation Assessment of Mass Incident Based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata

为更好地体现群体性突发事件演化规律，鉴于群体性突发事件态势演化过程中普遍存在模糊特点，结合模糊推理和元胞自动机理论，提出群体性突发事件态势评估的元胞自动机结构，定义相互影响系数m和情绪表现系数n两个输入变量，建立群体性突发事件态势评估的模糊元胞自动机模型。仿真结果表明，随着事件的发展，群体的情绪出现类聚现象，且相互影响系数越大同时情绪表现系数越大，群体活动表现越激烈，态势越严重，该模型可以更好地评估群体性突发事件态势，对于防范和应对处理群体性突发事件提供借鉴。

In order to reflect the rule of evolvement of mass incidents better,in view of the fuzziness characteristic in the evolution process of emergency situation of mass incident, fuzzy algorithm is introduced into the classical model of Cellular Automata（CA） in this paper. By defining two fuzzy variables, the coefficient of mutual affection and emotional ex- pression and the fuzzy CA model of situation assessment of mass incident are set up. The re- sult shows that the number of similar group gradually increases, while the mutual affection and emotional expression increases, group activities become more intense and the emergency situation get more serious. This model can access the emergency situation of mass incident better,providing reference to prevent and deal with mass incident.