食品工业中碳排放不确定性研究

Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Food Industry

食品工业中的碳排放已经得到更多的关注,但是对于碳排放不确定性的研究相对较少。中国主食传统生产工艺具有效率低、能耗高的特征,开发新工艺改善生产效率特别是节能减排在目前环境日益恶化的情况下则显得尤为重要,因此,本文基于蒙特卡洛抽样方法,假设两种碳排情景,分析了中国主食包子的单位产品在新旧工艺下的二氧化碳排放情况。结果表明在不同碳排放情景下,单位产品碳排放的绝对差异波动范围较大,但其相对碳排减少量都约为30%,并且其不确定性较小,即变化范围小,所得结论可靠。此外,虽然蒸制过程所需能耗是速冻过程的约四倍,但由于天然气和电力碳排放因子的差异,这两个工艺过程的二氧化碳排放量非常类似。

The carbon emission in food industry has gained more attention in recent years. However, studies based on uncertainty analysis of carbon emission were rare. Chinese traditional staple food production process has characteristics of low efficiency and high energy consumption, the development of new technology in im- proving the efficiency of production, especially energy-saving emission reduction in the current environment is particularly important. Therefore, based on Monte Carlo sampling method, two carbon emissions scenarios were assumed and used to analyze carbon dioxide emissions of the new and old production lines of one of Chinese sta- ple food Baozi. The results showed that in two scenarios, the absolute difference fluctuations were big, but the relative reduction of carbon emissions were both about 30 % and with little uncertainty, which lead to small change range and reliable conclusions. In addition, although the steaming process of the energy consumption is about four times the freezing process, but due to the differences in carbon emission factor of natural gas and electronic power, the carbon dioxide emissions from these two process were very similar.