需水预测方法比较研究

Comparative Study of Forecasting Methods for Water Demand

以唐山市丰南区国民经济需水预测为研究背景,对自身趋势外推法、影响因素相关分析法、灰色模型法等需水预测方法进行了比较研究,从而探索各种预测方法的优缺点及适用范围。通过理论分析和实例验证,发现需水预测根据各种预测方法的适用范围和优缺点合理选用,将有利于减少预测工作量和保障预测精度。最后,总结了每种预测方法的数学模型、前提条件、优缺点及预测中的注意事项。

With the water demand forecast of the Fengnan＇ s national economy in Tangshan city,the trend extrapolation, correlation analysis of the influence factors, grey model, and case methodth are compared. Further, the advantages and dis- advantages of each forecasting method and it＇ s scope of application are explored. Through theoretical analysis and practi- cal examples, it is found that the forecasting of water demand will be beneficial to reduce the workload and ensure the accu- racy under the rational selection of forecasting methods. In the end, the mathematical model, the advantages and disadvan- tages, the precondition and the precautions of each forecasting method are summarized.