全球贸易效率和贸易潜力及其影响因素分析

Global Trade Efficiency and Trade Potential and Its Influencing Factors

贸易效率和贸易潜力是影响一国贸易增长的主要因素。本文收集了全球85个国家和地区1995-2012年的贸易多样化、贸易集中化和贸易互补指数,并采用超越对数生产函数的随机前沿方法 (SFA)对各国的贸易效率和贸易潜力进行分解和测算。研究发现,世界各国与地区的贸易效率不断上升,且非OECD国家与地区的贸易效率较高;而贸易潜力也呈上升态势,但OECD国家的贸易潜力上升幅度比非OECD国家与地区大。同时,各国的要素投入规模效率为正,说明贸易投入与贸易增长成正相关,但是要素投入的影响效果相对较小且呈逐年下降趋势;贸易多样化程度分别与贸易效率和贸易潜力呈负相关关系;贸易集中化程度和贸易互补指数均与贸易效率和贸易潜力呈正相关关系;但贸易多样化、贸易集中化以及贸易互补指数对要素投入的贡献均不显著。

Trade efficiency and trade potential are two main factors affecting the export growth of one country. This paper collects the data of trade diversifica- tion, trade centralization and trade complementary index of 85 countries and regions from 1995 to 2012. And then we use stochastic frontier analysis （SFA） of translog production function to derive trade efficiency and trade potential. The es- timated results show that the trade efficiency rises recently and the non-OECD＇s is larger than the OECD＇ s. Trade potential has also rose, while the growth scale of OECD is higher than non-OECD＇ s. Furthermore, the scale efficiency of input is positive, indicating that inputs are positive to export growth, but the effect is minor and has a gradual decrease year by year. We also found that trade diversification are negative to trade efficiency and trade potential, trade centralization and trade complementary both are respectively positive to trade efficiency and trade potential, while trade diversification, trade centralization and trade complementary are all insignificant to the scale efficiency of inputs.