中国在“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI的第三国效应研究:基于空间计量方法

Research on the Third-country Effects of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in Countries along“One Belt and One Road”: Based on Spatial Econometric Method

中国在对外直接投资过程中面临的国际关系越来越复杂,不仅有中国与东道国之间的关系,还有东道国之间的关系,第三国在中国对东道国的OFDI中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文从空间视角出发,构建空间计量模型,运用2003-2014年42个"一带一路"沿线国家的面板数据对中国OFDI的第三国效应进行了实证检验。研究发现,中国在"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI存在显著的第三国效应,且具体表现为挤出效应。一方面,中国在第三国的OFDI对中国在东道国的OFDI存在显著的挤出效应;另一方面,第三国市场也会对中国在东道国的OFDI产生显著的挤出效应。本文还研究发现,中国在"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI呈现出"一动机一导向"特征,即资源寻求动机和贸易导向特征。采取替换变量和更改方法两种方式进行稳健性检验,结果进一步证实了上述结论。最后,本文提出了相关政策建议。

In the process of foreign direct investment, China has experienced more and more complex international relations, including not only relationships between the host country and China, but also relationships between different host countries. This means that a third country is playing a more and more significant role in China＇s OFDI. This paper builds a spatial econometric model to examine the third-country effects of China＇s OFDI by employing a panel data of China as the home country and 42 host countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂for the period 2003-2014.The major findings show that there is a significant third- country effect on China＇s OFDI to countries along ＂One Belt and One Road＂, and to be specific, the third-country effect is mainly reflected as crowding out effect. Firstly, China＇s OFDI to third countries has a significant crowding out effect on China＇s OFDI to the host country. Secondly, market in the third country also has a significant crowding out effect on China＇s OFDI. This paper also finds that China＇s OFDI is characterized by a guide and a motive, namely the resource seeking motivation and trade-oriented features. In addition, the robust test is carried out by two ways of replacing variables and changing methods, and the results further confirm the above conclusions. Finally, this paper puts forward some related policy recommendations.