基于EMD-ARMA的矿井瓦斯涌出量预测

Mine Gas Emission Prediction Based on EMD-ARMA Model

以矿井瓦斯涌出量预测方法为主要研究目的,针对瓦斯涌出量影响因素多,各因素间耦合机理及瓦斯涌出量变化规律复杂等诸多预测难点,提出了一种基于经验模态分解(EMD)和ARMA时间序列的综合分析方法,采用经过处理的时间序列对矿井瓦斯涌出量进行具体预测。根据各样本数据的不同特点选取合适的模型,建立EMD-ARMA预测模型,对矿井瓦斯涌出量及其变化趋势进行预测。

Taking mine gas emission prediction as the main purpose,in view of the predict difficulties of large amount of influence factors,complex coupling mechanism and variation laws,we present an integrated analysis based on empirical mode comprehensive analysis of decomposition（ EMD） and auto-regressive and moving average model（ ARMA） time series,and use disposed time-sequence processing of mine gas emission to achieve specific forecast. According to the different characteristics of each sample,we select suitable model to establish EMD-ARMA forecasting model for the forecast of mine gas emission and trend.