南京市流感样病例与平均气温的关系

Analysis on relationship between influenza like illness and average temperature in Nanjing City

目的探讨流感发病与气象因素之间的关系。方法收集南京市2010—2013年温度、湿度、气压等每日气象数据和流感样病例（ILI）监测数据,通过广义相加模型定量分析内在关系。结果南京市ILI好发季节为秋冬季,病例主要人群为15岁以下少年儿童,占81.80%;在夏季,平均温度每上升1℃,ILI发病相对危险度减少0.008,其中0~5岁组的儿童相对危险度减少0.012（P〈0.01）;在冬季,平均温度每上升1℃,ILI相对危险度增加0.018,其中60岁以上老人相对危险度增加达0.034（P〈0.01）。结论日均气温与ILI有明显关联,高温是ILI发病的保护性因素。

[Objective]To explore the relationship between influenza and meteorological factors.[Methods]Daily meteorological data of temperature,humidity and atmospheric pressure,and monitoring data of influenza like illness（ILI）in Nanjing City from2010-2013 were collected,and their relationship was analyzed by the generalized additive model（GAM）.[Results]The peak season of ILI appeared in autumn and winter in Nanjing City,and most of cases were children under 15 years old,accounting for81.80%. In summer,the relative risk of ILI decreased by 0.008 when the average temperature increased 1 ℃,and the relative risk in children aged 0-5 years old decreased by 0.012（P〈0.01）. In winter,the relative risk of ILI increased by 0.018 when the average temperature increased 1 ℃,and the relative risk in elderly people over 60 years old increased by 0.034（P〈0.01）.[Conclusion]The daily average temperature significantly correlates with ILI,and the high temperature may be protective factor of ILI.